건축허가면적 지표 증감에 따른 건설투자 변동 분석
건축허가면적 지표 증감에 따른 건설투자 변동 분석
Impacts of Construction Investment related Building Permit Area Indicator
저자 안민규, 문 혁, 김재준
소속 한양대학교, 한양대학교, 국토연구원
학술지정보 대한건축학회논문집(구조계)
발행정보 대한건축학회 2006년
자료제공처 국회도서관 국립중앙도서관 한국연구재단
주제분야 공학 > 건축공학
<초록>
Recently, the construction business cycle in Korea has been depicted as a different pattern from the national economy business cycle showing very unstable aspect in its frequency. To forecast the future construction market aspect, we usually depend on the building permit area indicator from construction industry itself as a typical and common method. However, this indicator have very low objectivity due to rare and limited evaluation of their statistical characteristics and accuracy. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to suggest the usefulness and accuracy of building permit area Indicator in forecasting the construction investment fluctuation as construction business cycle. To provide an objective assessment, Vector Autoregression model(VAR) analysis have been applied. As a result of this study, There is a mutual feedback between Construction Investment and building permit area. Also the variation of construction investment is influenced by building permit area and residential construction investment have brought about increasing non-residential construction investment. The results of usefulness assessment of building permit area indicator will give a new standard in forecasting construction business cycle.
<목차>
건축허가면적 지표 증감에 따른 건설투자 변동 분석 / 안민규 ; 문혁 ; 김재준 1
Abstract 1
1. 서론 1
1.1. 연구의 배경 및 목적 1
1.2. 연구의 범위 및 흐름 2
2. 이론적 고찰 2
2.1. 개념의 정의 2
2.2. 연구동향 3
3. 건축건설투자 및 건축허가면적 속성분석 3
3.1. 건축건설투자 3
3.2. 건축허가면적 4
4. 건축건설투자 및 건축허가면적 순환구조 분석 4
4.1. 건축건설투자 순환구조 분석 4
4.2. 건축허가면적 순환구조 분석 5
5. 건축건설투자와 건축허가면적 변수의 기본적 검정 6
5.1. 기술통계분석 6
5.2. 단위근 검정 6
6. 벡터자기회귀모형(VAR:Vector Autoregression Model)을 이용한 실증분석 7
6.1. 그랜저 인과성 검정(Granger Causality Test) 7
6.2. 예측오차 분산분해(Variance Decomposition) 8
6.3. 충격반응함수(Impulse Response Function) 9
7. 결론 10
참고문헌 10
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtKFgI5cMj6bd6gP7PlDJg4kMZTDyyOHkU4mkkjlj2SpcUcrVmq-y-1G3rnjU1DiGVxZjDTB0IqUocQ1g9PyNSeBp38hLvWKGP3PXSxe5nVeZJfQ7obQwJ_g9zn4UgTSOYPgbfbrdMBJA/s640/%25EC%259D%25B8%25EC%25A6%259D%25EC%259B%2590%25EB%25B8%2594%25EB%25A1%259C%25EA%25B7%25B8%25ED%2581%25AC%25EB%25A0%2588%25EB%2594%25A720181102.gif)
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